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家庭太阳能发电告别“两极分化”
返回列表 来源: 脑极体 发布日期: 2021.12.13 浏览次数:

最近各省拉闸限电的资讯频出,加上不少家庭紧急物资储备清单中都提到了澳门著名赌场,以至于家庭太阳能发电这门生意,又被不少网友议论起来。看多的人觉得:碳中和、碳达峰背景下,煤炭发电成本升高,新能源替代需求上升;太阳能发电设备的价格连续走低,不仅可以保证自家供电,还可以卖给电力企业赚钱。家庭太阳能的发展空间,不就更大了吗?看空的人觉得:回本周期长,投资回报比较低,去掉补贴就没有动力;部署环境有一定要求,安装在屋顶装修改造时增加麻烦;需要定期维护、检修,带来额外成本……双方的话听起来都有点道理,也引发了我的好奇。研究了国内外家庭太阳能行业的进展之后我发现,这个领域的两极化还挺明显:既老又新——早在1860年,就有科学家认为化石燃料将变得稀缺,光伏电池板和太阳能收集器等设备就开始流行起来;然而直到今天,太阳能依然被视作方兴未艾的新能源、新产业,光伏行业2019年上半年发展回顾与下半年形势展望研讨会上的行业数据显示,太阳能等可再生能源发电量占总发电量比重只有20%。既洋又村——纵观全球市场,踊跃支撑家庭太阳能来解决用电需求的,一种是欧美澳洲等西方现代国家的居民,2015年,全球光伏发电总装机容量超过4000万千瓦,主要市场在德国、西班牙、日本、意大利,其中仅德国2015年新增装机容量就700万千瓦。另一种则是中国农村地区,是家庭太阳能发电的主要发力点,许多中西部地区都将光伏产业作为重要的扶贫措施之一。共同特点是以独栋建筑为主,屋顶便于拆改。
        既多又少——太阳能资源与太阳能发电产业,未必是正相关的。比如非洲就是世界上阳光最集中的大陆,太阳能资源很丰富,但现实中非洲大陆只有南非是唯一一个拥有超过50兆瓦光伏电站的国家。美国加利福尼亚州的太阳能发电站比整个非洲都多,安装的太阳能发电容量是全尼日利亚所有的发电能力的两倍。欧洲的太阳能资源也只有非洲的一小部分,却拥有更多的太阳能设备。这种两极分化的表现,让家庭太阳能产业呈现出一种“哑铃型”结构,主要是集中在发达地区和欠发达地区。而大家知道,城市、城镇消费市场,往往有着“收入效应”“示范效应”“联动效应”和“累积效应”,说人话就是来钱多、来钱快、来钱久。因此,稳定的市场结构往往都是以中端消费人群为主力的“纺锤形”。这也展现出家庭太阳能产业发展的一个基本事实:要迎来飞跃式增长,需要从“哑铃型”向“纺锤型”加速优化,积极拥抱城市、城镇市场,结束目前“两极分化”的局面。那么,在城市铺满澳门著名赌场,这有可能吗?光靠爱护环境之类的情操,很难说服绝大多数城镇城市居民投入真金白银和人力物力进行改造。所以,很多国家在推行可持续能源战略时,都会设计一系列鼓励、补贴措施。比如2006加州议会就推出了“加利福尼亚太阳能倡议”计划,兴起了一股安装家用太阳能发电系统的热潮。光有政策还不够,位于市场中部的家庭消费者,拥抱太阳能发电还需要跨越三重障碍。
       第一重:商业模式合理吗?一般都认为,家庭太阳能发电系统“一次投入,25年回报”,是典型的长期价值投资。大家可以来算一笔账,一般1kW光伏发电系统,可用于家庭照明、电视、电脑的使用;3kW光伏发电系统可满足一家3口人的生活用电需求,特别是厨房用电;5kW光伏发电系统可以满足一家5口人的需求。家庭用户往往更倾向于选择5kW容量,大致需要投入4-10万元。2017年,中国某知名企业的家用5KW太阳能发电系统,一条龙安装需要4万元,美国亚利桑那州在补贴后,一个5KW太阳能发电系统大概要1万美金左右。一项针对2200名房主的调查显示,投资成本太高,难以考虑。此外,通过“自发自用、余电上网”“全额上网”等模式,获得电量回报,回本周期往往也需要5-7年,此后才能进入盈利期。而目前,各国针对绿色能源的补贴普遍在20-30%左右,美国在2020年为太阳能发电系统提供 26% 的安装成本。一旦大规模铺开,补贴取消,盈利周期又会继续往后延长。因此,乡村居民如果缺乏安全可靠的投资渠道,将余钱投入到家用光伏发电中,无可厚非。但数字化程度高、金融产品服务丰富的城镇城市居民,可能会觉得靠此盈利委实有点鸡肋了。最有操作性的方案大概是,在窗外放置一个光伏板,满足家庭电脑、手机等设备紧急充电的需求。可这样一来,又有多大的市场空间呢?
      第二重:长期保障存在吗?当然,或许也有人愿意无条件支撑绿色能源,或者回报虽少但“蚂蚱腿儿也是肉”,愿意在家里装上太阳能发电系统来解用电之渴。这种精神咱们当然一万个支撑。不过,大家在选择相关设备之前,一定要好好想想后期运维问题。如前所说,家用太阳能发电想要保本/盈利,需要5年以上的时间,而光伏板的维护、蓄电池的老化、相关组件的衰减等等,都会带来长期清洁打理的需求,否则就会影响光能转换效率,减少发电量。在澳洲等地,三十年前就开始建设太阳能家庭发电系统,已经形成了相对成熟的市场机制和服务体系,消费者不用太担心设备商跑路/倒闭,找不到售后;或者草台班子随便维修的安全隐患。此外,家庭太阳能的成本回收期比较长,政策的可持续性也需要纳入考量,否则一有变动,就成“用爱发电”了。比如2015年,非洲尼日利亚就曾花费160亿美金发展太阳能电力,但因为政府问题而最终失败。这也是为什么全球产业论坛gridovate的报告认为,非洲的太阳能发展潜力是世界上最好的,但真实的产业发展却远远不足的原因。可持续、可预见的长效保障机制,是太阳能行业拥有竞争力的关键。
      第三重:城市发展允许吗?家用太阳能发电除了太阳能资源的硬性条件之外,还需要靠近主干电网,以减少新增输电线路的投资。同时要距离用电负荷中心较近,以减少输电损失。与用电负荷小且分散的农村用户相比,城市发展家用太阳能似乎更具经济价值。目前,中国城市化率在统计数字上已经达到了56%,看似带来了巨大的市场空间,但需要注意的是,“以工业化带动城市化”的欧美现代化城市建设,在城市扩张的同时,也产生了大量的问题,比如金融资本汇聚导致资产价格高企,北上广深等一线城市的人均居住面积都低于全国平均水平,这时候要找出20-30平方米的阳光明媚、开放、朝南的屋顶来安装光伏板,得是啥家庭啊?在经济较为发达的江苏等地,一般都是洋房或别墅等会在屋顶加装。资产壁垒,进一步限制了用户规模。再比如,过去中国大中型城市的快速发展,在基础设施、公共空间等方面留下了许多缺陷,近些年来许多城市都开启了升级美化,以期改善生活环境,提升居民生活幸福指数,在居住区加装光伏板自然会影响小区的美观度,造成一定的光污染,很难想象走在“变美”路上的城市会对蓝哇哇的光伏板大加鼓励。市场中部难以撬动,是不是家用太阳能发电就搞不下去了?并不是。今天中国大力推进的城镇化、乡村振兴等举措,或许会给家用太阳能行业带来新的机会。“纺锤型”市场,未必一定是中部崛起,也可以是尾部向中部流动,不是吗?或许,家用太阳能的未来,与很多行业一样,都在绿色乡村、生态中国。 

Recently, the news of the provincial power cuts and the solar panels have been mentioned in many families emergency supplies reserve lists, so that the business of household solar power generation has been discussed by many netizens again.   Bulls think: under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peak, the cost of coal power generation will rise, and the demand for alternative energy will rise;  The price of solar power equipment has continued to fall, not only to ensure that their own electricity supply, but also to sell to power companies to make money.  Isnt there more room for home solar?  Bearish people think: the recovery cycle is long, the investment return is relatively low, without subsidies there is no motivation;  Deployment environment has certain requirements, installation in the renovation of the roof increase trouble;  Need regular maintenance, overhaul, bring additional costs......  Both sides sounded reasonable and intrigued me.   As I studied the progress of the home solar industry, both at home and abroad, I found that the polarization of the field was stark: old and new -- devices like photovoltaic panels and solar collectors became popular as early as 1860, when scientists believed fossil fuels would become scarce;  However, until today, solar energy is still regarded as a new energy and new industry in the ascendant. According to industry data presented at the pv industry development Review in the first half of 2019 and outlook for the second half of 2019, solar and other renewable energy sources account for only 20% of the total power generation.  Village -- throughout the global market, both the yankees and solar energy to solve the demand to support family, one kind is the residents of the modern western countries such as Europe and the United States, Australia, in 2015, the global photovoltaic total installed capacity of more than 40 million kw, the main market in Germany, Spain, Japan, Italy, Germany new power capacity in 2015 alone 7 million kilowatts.  The other is Chinas rural areas, where household solar power is concentrated, and many central and western regions see the photovoltaic industry as an important poverty-alleviation measure.  The common characteristic is single-family building, the roof is easy to tear down and change.  

More and less -- there is not necessarily a positive correlation between solar resources and the solar power industry.  For example, Africa is the continent with the most concentrated sunlight in the world, and solar energy resources are abundant. However, in reality, South Africa is the only country on the African continent with more than 50 MEGAwatts of photovoltaic power stations.  California has more solar power plants than all of Africa, with twice as much installed solar capacity as all of Nigeria.  Europe also has a fraction of Africas solar resources, but more solar equipment.   This polarisation gives the home solar industry a dumbbell structure, concentrated in developed and less developed regions.  As we all know, consumption markets in cities and towns often have "income effect", "demonstration effect", "linkage effect" and "cumulative effect".  Therefore, the stable market structure is often in the middle of the consumer group as the main "spindle".  This also shows a basic fact of the development of home solar energy industry: to embrace a leap forward growth, we need to accelerate the optimization from "dumbbell" to "spindle", actively embrace the city and town market, and end the current "polarization" situation.   So is it possible to blanket cities with solar panels?  It is difficult to persuade the vast majority of urban residents to invest real money and human and material resources in environmental protection alone.   Therefore, many countries will design a series of incentives and subsidies when implementing sustainable energy strategies.   In 2006, for example, the California Legislature introduced the California Solar Initiative, which has led to a rush to install solar systems for homes.  Policy alone is not enough. Household consumers in the middle of the market will have to jump three hurdles to embrace solar power.  

First: is the business model reasonable?   Home solar systems are generally considered to be "one-shot, 25-year payback" investments that typically offer long-term value.   We can calculate an account, the general 1kW PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system, can be used for home lighting, television, computer use;   3kW PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system can meet the living electricity demand of a family of 3 people, especially the kitchen electricity;   The 5kW PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system can meet the needs of a family of 5 people.   Home users tend to choose 5kW capacity, roughly need to invest 40,000-100,000 yuan.   In 2017, a household 5KW solar power system of a well-known enterprise in China cost 40,000 yuan to install. After subsidies, a 5KW solar power system in Arizona in the United States costs about 10,000 DOLLARS.   A survey of 2,200 homeowners suggests the cost of investment is too high to consider.   In addition, through "spontaneous self-use, surplus electricity to access the Internet", "full access to the Internet" and other modes, to obtain electricity return, the current cycle often takes 5-7 years, then can enter the profit period.   At present, green energy subsidies are generally around 20-30%, and the United States will provide 26% of the installation cost of solar power systems in 2020.   Once it is rolled out on a large scale and subsidies are removed, the profit cycle will continue to be extended later.   Therefore, if rural residents lack a safe and reliable investment channel, it is not wrong to put their spare money into household PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation.   But urbanites, with their digitalization and wealth of financial products and services, may find this a bit of a stretch.   The most practical solution would probably be to place a photovoltaic panel outside the window for emergency charging of home computers, mobile phones and other devices.   But in this way, and how much market space?   


Second: Does long-term security exist?   Of course, there may be those who are willing to support green energy unconditionally, or who are willing to put solar power systems in their homes to satisfy their thirst for electricity.   We certainly support this spirit.   However, before you choose the relevant equipment, be sure to think about the late operation and maintenance problems.   As mentioned above, it takes more than 5 years for household solar power generation to be break-even/profitable. The maintenance of photovoltaic panels, aging of batteries, attenuation of related components, etc., will bring the need for long-term cleaning and care, otherwise it will affect the light energy conversion efficiency and reduce power generation.   In Australia and other places, solar home power generation system was started 30 years ago, and a relatively mature market mechanism and service system has been formed. Consumers do not have to worry too much about equipment suppliers going out of business or failing to find after-sales service.   Or caotai team maintenance of security risks.   In addition, the cost recovery period of household solar energy is relatively long, and the sustainability of the policy needs to be taken into consideration, otherwise any change will become "electricity from love".   Nigeria, for example, spent $16 billion on solar power in 2015, but it failed because of government problems.   This is why a report by Gridovate, a global industry forum, argues that Africa has the best solar potential in the world, but real industrial development is far from adequate.   A sustainable and predictable long-term guarantee mechanism is the key to the competitiveness of the solar industry.   

Third: is urban development allowed?   In addition to the rigid requirements of solar resources, domestic solar power needs to be close to the main grid to reduce investment in new transmission lines.   At the same time, it should be close to the power load center to reduce transmission loss.   Compared with rural users with small and scattered electricity loads, it seems more economic to develop residential solar power in cities.   At present, Chinas urbanization rate has reached 56% in statistics, appears to be a huge market space, but it is important to note that the "industrialization promoting urbanization" of European and American modern city construction, expansion in the city at the same time, also produced a lot of problems, such as financial capital gathering cause asset prices are high,   With per-capita living space in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all below the national average, what kind of family would have to find 20-30 square meters of sunny, open, south-facing roofs to install photovoltaic panels on?   In economically developed jiangsu and other places, are generally houses or villas and so on in the roof.   Asset barriers, further limit the scale of users.   Again, for example, in the past, the rapid development of large and medium-sized cities in China, in terms of infrastructure, public space left many defects, in recent years many cities have started the upgrade beautification, in order to improve the living environment, improve residents life happiness, in the residential area equipped with photovoltaic panels will effect the beauty of the village of degrees, causing a certain amount of light pollution,   It is hard to imagine cities on the road to beauty encouraging blu-hued photovoltaic panels.   The middle of the market is difficult to move, is household solar power not to go down?   And it isnt.   Today, Chinas efforts to promote urbanization, rural revitalization and other measures may bring new opportunities to the household solar industry.   "Spindle" market, not necessarily the rise of the middle, can also be tail to the middle of the flow, right?   Perhaps, the future of home solar energy, like many industries, lies in green countryside, ecological China.  



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