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碳中和:开启新的发展时代
返回列表 来源: 张永生 宣讲家网 发布日期: 2021.10.08 浏览次数:

   在“实现碳达峰、碳中和,企业何为”主题论坛上,中国社会科学院生态文明研究所所长张永生表示,全球范围的碳中和共识,标志着一个旧发展时代的结束,新发展时代的来临。实现碳中和会带来巨大的机遇,也会面临非常大的挑战。
全球碳中和共识标志着传统工业时代的落幕
张永生先容,在2009年的哥本哈根气候大会上,几乎所有国家都认为碳减排是经济发展的负担。那时各国的谈判策略都是希翼其他国家多减排、本国少减排。短短十年,世界仿佛发生了沧海桑田的巨变。全球碳中和共识已然形成,不仅发达国家提出净零碳排放目标,以中国为引领的一些发展中国家也提出碳中和目标。
过去说到现代化,大都是将现有发达国家作为经济现代化的目标。一些人认为,发达国家的今天,就是中国现代化的明天。但是,中国的现代化不是西方现代化的简单翻版,而是人与自然和谐共生的现代化。这对发达国家和中国来说,都是新事物,因为现在的发达国家,也没有实现人与自然和谐共生的现代化。在这个问题上,中国和发达国家站在大体相同的起跑线上。“这也意味着,中国在进入新发展阶段后,将以新的发展方式实现现代化”。
张永生表示,实现碳中和蕴藏着巨大的发展机遇,但要实现这个目标也并不容易,是一场生产生活方式的“自我革命”。目前,社会各界对于碳中和目标有很多观点。乐观者认为,碳中和目标带来了数十万亿甚至百万亿级的投资机会。这种说法大体是对的,但这些市场机会能不能转化成现实,则需要具备很多政策和市场条件。
还有一种乐观派——技术决定论者认为,实现碳中和目标就是依靠新的技术突破。他们认为,在不改变现有生产、生活方式的前提下,碳中和只是像替换一个汽车零部件一样,用新能源替换化石能源就能实现,但实际上并非如此。
一些悲观派则认为,在中国,尤其是一些化石能源行业可能会认为,转型会有非常大的困难。这个是非常现实的困难。政府要给予特别的支撑,帮助他们转型,并创造新就业机会。还有的人认为,在中国还没有完全完成工业化时就提出碳中和目标,这可能会影响中国的现代化进程。这种思维,可能更多的还是在传统工业化模式下考虑问题,一旦跳出来,就会看到大量新的机遇。
在张永生看来,碳中和目标的提出,实际上代表着一个旧发展时代的结束,一个新发展时代的来临。实现碳中和目标会带来巨大的市场机遇,也会面临巨大的挑战。如果不准备好,很多行业、地区、部门可能就会受到相当大的冲击。绿色转型是从一个结构跃升到另一个新的结构。一旦采取行动,很多在旧结构下完全想不到的新机会,就会跳出来了。
碳中和有望开启中国下一个40年发展奇迹.

 张永生认为,碳中和意味着发展模式的深刻转变。碳达峰、碳中和两个概念经常被连在一起谈,说实现碳达峰之后再实现碳中和。但是,碳达峰和碳中和,其实是两个不同性质的概念。
碳达峰在传统工业化模式下也可以实现,只是力度不一样,实现的时间或早一点、晚一点,实现的峰值高一点和低一点的区别。但是,要实现碳中和,则意味着中国现在一百多亿吨的碳排放,要全部消除掉,其中大部分通过减排,小部分通过“中和”完成。中国目前的一百万亿元GDP,正是建立在这一百多亿吨碳排放的基础上,而2035年经济还要倍增,新增约100万亿元GDP。考虑到2030年碳达峰,大体上相当于这新增的100万亿元GDP都是零碳甚至负碳。这就意味着,现在整个经济大厦的根基要发生彻底改变,包括衣食住行所有的生产、生活方式都要改变。这是一个脱胎换骨的改变,同每个人的生活都密切相关,不是只和搞环保行业的人士相关。
张永生表示,从20世纪80年代开始,中国就在讲生产方式的转变,从粗放型到节约型。但是,现在讲的绿色发展方式转变,同以前不是同一个概念。过去强调效率提高、技术提高和产业结构的提升,但现在要解决的是全球碳排放问题,转型要从生产的内容到生产的方式都发生彻底的变化。大家生活方式也要发生改变,消费的东西也要发生改变。
张永生认为,碳中和有望开启中国下一个40年发展奇迹。从1978年到2020年(42年),是中国的第一个40年发展奇迹。当初没有人想到,中国会在40年发生如此翻天覆地的变化。这个发展奇迹,更多的还是在走传统工业化道路,最终难以持续。从2020年到2060年正好40年,也是全球进入新绿色发展时代的40年,传统工业时代形成的经济体系将会被彻底重塑,发展理念、生产和消费的内容、资源概念、商业模式等,都会发生很大改变,大量新机遇会出来。如果抓住这个历史机遇,未来40年有望出现新的发展奇迹,而这个发展奇迹,不只是经济增长,更是发展质量和人们福祉的提高,同时实现“人与自然和谐共生”的现代化。
不彻底转变发展方式,碳达峰一百年也无法自动实现碳中和
过去十年,新能源成本大幅度下降。原来人们认为成本下降空间比较小的风电,也有大幅度下降。今后新能源将是成本非常低的能源。这就是市场神奇的力量。任何一个产品刚出来时,价格都会很高,但是随着市场分工与专业化水平的提升,成本越来越低,最后成为低价的普通商品。因此,如果大家理解市场的作用机理,“风电、光伏、电动汽车等的增长前景,根本不用担心”,张永生先容说。
就太阳能光伏而言,2000年中国的光伏发电装机容量规模很小,但现在中国是世界第一,远远高于美国。风能发电装机容量也一样,2018年就已经远远地把美国甩在后面,并且仍在高速增长。同样,2008年时,中国电动汽车推广异常艰难,现在中国的电动汽车使用数量已经远超英美等国家。我国在新能源和电动车等绿色经济新领域,不少方面还有一定的优势,包括技术水平、制造能力、市场份额等。
张永生认为,在实现碳中和的战略上,中国要考虑以下几点。首先要跳出传统工业化思维,在新发展阶段、新发展理念和新发展格局的背景下理解中国的碳中和战略。碳中和目标的实现,应该是“低碳经济+低中和”,而不是“高碳经济+高中和”。换句话说,大家要从可持续发展的角度来看待碳中和,而不是只是减碳这个单一维度。
另外,要实现碳中和目标,现在就应该采取强有力措施转变发展方式,而不是等碳达峰之后开始转变。如果不彻底转变发展方式,即使碳达峰一百年,也无法自动实现碳中和。从现在到2035年,中国要基本实现现代化,GDP还要再新增一倍。这是中国碳中和的窗口期。如果不从现在开始加快行动减排,就会被锁定在高碳路径,等碳达峰后再转换,实现碳中和的成本就会非常高。

At the forum, Zhang Yongsheng, director of the Institute of Ecological Civilization under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the global consensus on carbon neutrality marks the end of an old era of development and the advent of a new one. Achieving carbon neutrality presents both great opportunities and great challenges.

The global carbon-neutral consensus marks the end of the traditional industrial era

According to Zhang yongsheng, at the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, almost all countries agreed that carbon reduction was a burden on economic development. At that time, the negotiating strategy was to expect other countries to reduce their emissions more and their own emissions less.In just ten years, the world seems to have changed dramatically. A global consensus on carbon neutrality has taken shape. Not only developed countries have proposed net zero carbon emission targets, but also some developing countries, led by China, have proposed carbon neutrality targets.

In the past, when it comes to modernization, most of them regard the existing developed countries as the target of economic modernization.Some people believe that the present of developed countries is the future of Chinas modernization.However, Chinas modernization is not a simple copy of western modernization, but a modernization in which man and nature coexist in harmony. This is new to both developed countries and China, because the developed countries have yet to realize the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature. On this issue, China and developed countries are standing at roughly the same starting line. "It also means that China will modernise in a new way as it enters a new stage of development."

Zhang yongsheng said achieving carbon neutrality is a huge development opportunity, but it is not easy to achieve the goal, which is a "self-revolution" in the way of production and life. At present, there are many views on the goal of carbon neutrality.Optimists argue that carbon neutrality offers investment opportunities in the trillions or even trillions. That is broadly true, but translating these market opportunities into reality requires a lot of policy and market conditions.

There are also optimists, the technodeterminists, who believe that achieving carbon neutrality depends on new technological breakthroughs.They believe that carbon neutrality can be achieved by replacing fossil fuels with new energy sources, just like replacing a car part, without changing existing production and lifestyle, but it is not the case.

Some pessimists argue that China, particularly some in the fossil energy industry, may find the transition very difficult.This is a very real difficulty. Special government support is needed to help them transform and create new jobs.Others argue that introducing carbon neutrality targets at a time when China has not yet fully industrialised could jeopardise its modernisation. This kind of thinking may be more in the traditional industrial model of thinking, once out, will see a lot of new opportunities.

In Zhang yongshengs view, the proposal of carbon neutrality actually represents the end of an old development era and the advent of a new one.Achieving carbon neutrality will bring huge market opportunities as well as huge challenges.Many industries, regions and sectors could be hit quite hard if they are not. A green transition is a jump from one structure to a new one.Once action is taken, many new opportunities will pop up that could not have been thought of under the old structure.

Carbon neutrality is expected to usher in Chinas next 40-year development miracle

According to Zhang yongsheng, carbon neutrality means a profound shift in the development model.The concepts of carbon peak and carbon neutral are often talked about together, saying that carbon peak and then carbon neutral. However, carbon peak and carbon neutral are two different concepts.

Carbon peak can also be achieved under the traditional industrialization model, but the intensity is different, the time of realization or a little earlier, a little later, the realization of a little higher peak and a little lower difference. To achieve carbon neutrality, however, means eliminating all of Chinas current carbon emissions of more than 10 billion tons, most of which through emission reduction and a small part through "neutralization". Chinas current GDP of 100 trillion yuan is based on carbon emissions of more than 10 billion tons. In 2035, the economy will double, adding about 100 trillion yuan to Chinas GDP.Considering the carbon peak in 2030, roughly equivalent to this additional 100 trillion yuan of GDP is zero or even negative carbon. This means that the foundation of the entire economic edifice has to be completely changed, including the basic necessities of life and production. This is a radical change that affects everyones life, not just those in the environmental industry.

Since the 1980s, Says Mr Zhang, China has been talking about shifting from an extensive to an economical mode of production.However, the transformation of the mode of green development is not the same concept as before. In the past, the emphasis was on efficiency, technology and industrial structure improvement, but now it is on global carbon emissions, and the transformation requires a radical change in both what is produced and how it is produced. The way we live is going to change, the things we consume are going to change.

Zhang yongsheng believes that carbon neutrality could usher in Chinas next 40-year development miracle.The period from 1978 to 2020 (42 years) is Chinas first 40-year development miracle. No one could have imagined that China would change so dramatically in 40 years.This development miracle, more along the path of traditional industrialization, will not be sustainable. The period from 2020 to 2060 is exactly 40 years that the world will enter a new era of green development. The economic system formed in the traditional industrial era will be completely reshaped, with great changes in the concept of development, content of production and consumption, concept of resources and business model. A large number of new opportunities will emerge.If we seize this historic opportunity, a new miracle of development is expected to emerge in the next 40 years. This miracle of development is not only about economic growth, but also about improving the quality of development and peoples well-being, and realizing modernization in which "man and nature coexist in harmony".

Without a complete shift in the mode of development, carbon neutrality cannot be achieved automatically within 100 years of peaking

The cost of new energy has fallen dramatically over the past decade.Wind power, which is thought to have little room for cost reduction, has also dropped significantly. The new energy sources of the future will be very low-cost energy sources.Thats the magic of the market. When any product comes out, the price will be high, but with the improvement of market division and specialization, the cost will be lower and lower, and finally become a low-priced common commodity. So if we understand how the market works, "the growth prospects for wind power, photovoltaics, electric vehicles and so on, we dont have to worry at all," Says Zhang yongsheng.

In terms of solar pv, Chinas installed pv capacity was small in 2000, but now China is the worlds largest, far ahead of the United States.Wind power capacity, too, was far behind the US in 2018 and is still growing at a high rate.Similarly, the adoption of electric vehicles in China, which struggled in 2008, now far outstrips those in countries like the U.S. and The U.K. China has certain advantages in many areas of green economy, such as new energy and electric vehicles, including technological level, manufacturing capacity and market share.

According to Zhang yongsheng, China needs to consider the following points in its strategy to achieve carbon neutrality.First of all, Chinas carbon neutrality strategy should be understood in the context of new development stage, new development concept and new development pattern. The goal of carbon neutrality should be "low-carbon economy + low neutralization", not "high carbon economy + high school peace".In other words, we need to look at carbon neutrality from the perspective of sustainable development, not just carbon reduction as a single dimension.

Moreover, to achieve carbon neutrality, strong measures should be taken now to change the way development is done, rather than waiting until carbon peaks.Without a radical shift in development patterns, carbon neutrality will not be achieved automatically even if carbon peaks at 100 years.Between now and 2035, China will basically achieve modernization and its GDP will double again. This is the window period for China to become carbon neutral.If we dont accelerate emissions reduction now, we will be locked into a high carbon path, and then switch to carbon neutrality when we reach the peak, which will be very costly.



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