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预计:2022年全球新增装机澳门正规线上平台将首超200GW!
返回列表 来源: 每日光伏资讯 发布日期: 2021.12.07 浏览次数:

    根据IHS Markit发布的一份新报告,尽管生产成本持续上升,但2022年全球太阳能光伏装机容量将出现超过20%的增长,首次突破200GW(DC)大关,所需投资总额至少为1700亿美金。2013年-2020年,全球光伏发电系统成本平均降幅超过50%,不断下降的光伏系统成本是这一行业指数级增长的关键因素。在此期间,全球装机容量增长了275%。然而, 2021年,光伏系统成本同比增长4%,给蓬勃发展的市场带来了新的挑战。
       尽管成本超出预期,但中国、印度、美国和欧洲等主要市场的装机容量今年再次推动了扩张,其中,最快的增长来自于由中国牵头的分布式发电领域。IHS Markit清洁能源技术研究经理Josefin Berg表示,"2021年,公用事业部门受到的影响最大,多个项目被推迟或取消。相比之下,受燃料危机和电价飙升的推动,分布式发电,也就是户用和工商业领域增长强劲,尤其是在整个欧洲市场,这是太阳能光伏在2021年取得的一部分成功。”IHS Markit预计,2021年,太阳能光伏装机容量将经历两位数的增长并会持续增长至2022年。届时,装机容量预计将突破200GW(DC)大关,这意味着在高价格环境下,全球装机容量连续第二年经历两位数增长。明年成本会继续上涨, 直至2023年新增产能释放让人们松一口气。
        过去一年,物流和供应链遭受的剧烈破坏将太阳能光伏材料的成本推至新高。此外,中国在2021年下半年实施新的限电措施,限制了部分省份制造商的产量,影响了金属硅、多晶硅和太阳能玻璃等关键材料的生产,进一步推高了价格。从2020年10月到2021年10月,多晶硅价格涨幅超过了200%,同时,其他组件材料的价格也大幅上涨,例如太阳能玻璃和铜,这迫使组件制造商调高价格。IHS Markit估计,自2021年8月以来,平均组件生产成本的涨幅已超过15%,组件价格目前已达到2019年的水平。其他太阳能光伏部件,如逆变器和跟踪器,也受到部分材料(包括半导体组件)短缺和钢铁等原材料成本高企的影响。IHS Markit预计,目前的高额运费和随后的运输延误将持续到2022年,这尤其会对国际项目的经济性产生影响。IHS Markit清洁能源技术实行董事Edurne Zoco表示,“整个全球市场对投资和开发太阳能项目都兴趣十足,但供应链还没有做好满足这种水平需求的准备,它需要时间来调整。在多晶硅市场上,大家可以最清楚地看到这一点,这会继续成为2022年制约太阳能光伏发展的瓶颈问题,这一问题会持续到2023年,直到新产能项目量产为止。”
      预计在2023年之前,供应链的持续紧张状况将使组件价格保持高位。一旦多晶硅产能与组件供应链的其他节点保持在同一水平,中国对其他关键组件材料(如 聚合物和太阳能玻璃)的限电情况有所缓解,那么从2023年开始,成本就会开始恢复下降趋势。值得关注的是,组件技术路线图中预测的组件效率的提升,即钝化接触电池(TOPCon)或异质结电池(HJT)技术也将有助于从2023年起降低生产成本。
      政策的不确定性仍然是一个因素,全球三大太阳能光伏市场——中国、美国和印度的政策不确定性是2022年预测面临的普遍问题,政策不确定性问题应在2022年一季度之前解决。政策公告会对产能决策和市场安装速度产生重大影响。例如,在中国,目前限电的长度和强度将决定太阳能光伏的利用率以及国内和国际市场的供应量。在美国,由于高成本、投资税收抵免政策的可能延期以及从国际市场进口组件障碍的增多,政策决定和宏观经济条件的未来变化都有可能破坏美国明年20%的公用事业项目预期。
      IHS Markit清洁能源技术实行董事Edurne Zoco预计,"这两年,太阳能光伏成本的下降陷入僵局,虽然如此,太阳能仍然是资本支出最低的能源技术之一,是安装速度最快的能源。在太阳能的技术竞争力、多功能特性和安装速度的推动下,预计2021-2025年太阳能项目累计装机容量将超过1000GW(DC),这会对这十年电力系统的去碳化起到重要作用。”

According to a new report by IHS Markit, global installed solar pv capacity is set to grow by more than 20% in 2022, breaking the 200GW(DC) mark for the first time and requiring a total investment of at least $170 billion, despite rising production costs.   From 2013 to 2020, global pv system costs fell by an average of more than 50%, and falling PV system costs are a key factor behind the exponential growth of the industry.  During that time, global installed capacity grew 275 per cent.  However, pv system costs increased by 4% year-on-year in 2021, bringing new challenges to the booming market.  

Despite higher-than-expected costs, installed capacity in key markets such as China, India, the US and Europe has driven expansion again this year, with the fastest growth coming from distributed generation, led by China.   "In 2021, the utilities sector is the most affected, with multiple projects being delayed or cancelled," said Josefin Berg, research manager for clean energy technologies at IHS Markit.   In contrast, distributed generation, the household and industrial and commercial sector, is growing strongly, particularly in the European market as a whole, driven by the fuel crisis and soaring electricity prices, which is part of the success of SOLAR pv in 2021."  IHS Markit expects installed solar pv capacity to experience double-digit growth in 2021 and continue to grow through 2022.  By then, installed capacity is expected to pass the 200GW(DC) mark, meaning global installed capacity has experienced double-digit growth for the second year in a row in a high-price environment.  Costs will continue to rise next year, until new capacity is released in 2023.  

Severe disruptions to logistics and supply chains over the past year have pushed the cost of solar photovoltaic materials to new highs.  In addition, new power rationing measures in the second half of 2021 have limited production by manufacturers in some provinces, affecting production of key materials such as silicon metal, polysilicon and solar glass, further driving up prices.  Polysilicon prices rose more than 200 percent from October 2020 to October 2021, while prices of other component materials, such as solar glass and copper, also rose sharply, forcing component makers to raise prices.  IHS Markit estimates that average component production costs have risen by more than 15% since August 2021, with component prices now reaching 2019 levels.  Other solar pv components, such as inverters and trackers, have also been affected by shortages of some materials, including semiconductor components, and high costs of raw materials such as steel.  IHS Markit expects the current high freight rates and subsequent shipping delays to continue into 2022, particularly affecting the economics of international projects.  Edurne Zoco, executive director of clean energy technologies at IHS Markit, said: "There is strong interest across the global market to invest in and develop solar projects, but the supply chain is not ready to meet this level of demand and it will take time to adjust.  We can see this most clearly in the polysilicon market, which will continue to be a bottleneck for solar pv development in 2022 and until 2023, when new capacity projects come into production."  

Continued tightness in the supply chain is expected to keep component prices high until 2023.  Once polysilicon capacity is kept at the same level as the rest of the component supply chain, and Chinas power rationing on other key component materials, such as polymers and solar glass, eases, costs will start to resume their downward trend from 2023.   It is worth noting that improvements in component efficiency predicted in the component Technology Roadmap, namely passivated contact cell (TOPCon) or heterojunction cell (HJT) technology, will also help reduce production costs from 2023.  

Policy uncertainty continues to be a factor, with policy uncertainty in China, the US and India, the three largest solar pv markets in the world, being a common issue for 2022 forecasts, which should be resolved by the first quarter of 2022.   Policy announcements can have a significant impact on capacity decisions and the speed of installation to market.  In China, for example, the length and intensity of the current blackout will determine solar pv utilization and supply in domestic and international markets.  In the United States, policy decisions and future changes in macroeconomic conditions could undermine 20 percent of U.S. utility project projections for next year due to high costs, potential extension of investment tax credits, and increased barriers to importing components from international markets.  

Edurne Zoco, executive director of clean energy technologies at IHS Markit, predicted, "The decline in solar pv costs has stalled for two years, but solar remains one of the lowest capex energy technologies and the fastest to install.   "The cumulative installed capacity of solar projects is expected to exceed 1000GW(DC) in 2021-2025, driven by solars technological competitiveness, multi-functional characteristics and installation speed, which will play an important role in the decarbonization of the power system this decade."  

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